Phoenix Prediction Docs

Market Lifecycle

How markets move from draft to trading to settlement

An event is the page players open. A market inside it is the trading contract, with its timing, outcomes, rules and settlement.

Events and markets are separate decisions

An event controls discovery and presentation. A market controls trading and settlement. Review both before publishing.

Market States

StateWhat players seeWhat your team does
DraftNothing: only your team and Phoenix see itReview content, timing, category and place, then publish
OpenThe market, open for tradingWatch activity; reschedule if the event moves
ClosedTrading has stopped; the result is not in yetEnter the result when it is known (your events)
On holdTrading has stopped and the result is withheld: postponed, interrupted, abandoned, result withdrawn, or under reviewRelease the hold when the situation is clear (then enter the result once the market is closed), or void the market. A hold set by a person never voids by itself. A platform market held by the data feed (postponed, interrupted or abandoned) can void at the feed's deadline; Phoenix handles those
SettledThe result is final; payouts are sent to players' wallets (the Events list shows the event as Settling until every payout is paid)Check no payout shows as Refused; answer player questions
VoidThe market was cancelled and stakes refundedExplain the reason if players ask
Settled 50/50The market was cancelled with every share paying halfExplain the reason if players ask

Your book on a market has its own state: Not open yet (the market is a draft), Open, Suspended (trading stopped for your players), Closed, Settled or Void.

Before Opening a Market

Check these items before a market goes live:

Confirm the title is clear and cannot be interpreted in multiple ways.

Check that claims are mutually exclusive and complete.

Set the close time before the event or data point being predicted.

Name the source of truth in the resolution rule.

Confirm the event is in the right category and place, and that Curation shows it to your players in each environment.

Know your fees (read-only under Manage > Your operator) and your order limits (set there by your Admin).

Check that the image and description do not imply a different settlement rule.

While Trading Is Open

Watch for signals that require operator attention:

  • Unexpectedly high volume
  • Player support questions about the wording
  • External event changes that make the market ambiguous
  • Unusual order failure rates
  • Data source uncertainty

If the market should no longer accept orders, close or hold it (your own events) or suspend your book (platform events). Closing stops new trades for good but does not choose an outcome.

Closing, Holding, Suspending and Voiding

ActionUse whenPlayer impact
Close now (your events)Trading must stop early and the market can still settle normally. Needs a reason; a closed market never reopensPositions stay open until the result
Hold (your events)The result is unclear for nowTrading stops; no result can be entered until you release the hold, or you void the market
Suspend your book (platform events)Trading needs a temporary stop for your players while you review price, news or integrityNew orders on your book are refused until you resume. Other operators are not affected
Void (your events)The market should be cancelled and refundedPositions are refunded: stakes back, or every share paying half

Suspending and holding are reversible; closing and voiding are not. Do not use them interchangeably with hiding: hiding (in Curation) changes what players see, suspending, holding or closing changes trading, and voiding changes the final settlement. See Your Events and Results.

After Close

Closed markets should be resolved as soon as the outcome is known and the evidence is reliable. Long delays create support pressure because players can see positions but not a final result.

For your own markets, prepare before entering the result:

  • The evidence link: a public page showing the result (required)
  • The reason (required), with a note where you choose Other
  • The winning outcome

The back office records who entered it and when.

After Settlement

After a market is settled or voided, verify:

  • The market status is final.
  • Payouts and refunds show as Paid on Trades, and none as Refused.
  • Support can find the market and its wallet move keys for player questions.
  • Any public explanation is consistent with the market's rules.