Phoenix Prediction Docs

Market Lifecycle

How markets move from draft to trading to settlement

A prediction market is not just a page players can open. It is a trading contract with timing, outcomes, pricing, resolution rules, and settlement obligations.

Lifecycle States

StateWhat players seeOperator action
ScheduledMarket may be visible before trading opensReview content, timing, and placement
OpenPlayers can place predictionsMonitor activity and bet health
ClosedTrading has stoppedPrepare or wait for resolution
SettledOutcome is final and settlement is in progress or completeReview payouts and support questions
VoidedMarket was cancelled or refundedReconcile refunds and communicate clearly

Before Opening a Market

Check these items before a market goes live:

  • The title is clear and cannot be interpreted in multiple ways.
  • Outcomes are mutually exclusive and complete.
  • The close time is before the event or data point being predicted.
  • The resolution rule names the source of truth.
  • The market is visible in the right experience, category, and topics.
  • The currency and fee settings are correct.
  • The image and description do not imply a different settlement rule.

While Trading Is Open

Watch for signals that require operator attention:

  • Unexpectedly high volume
  • Player support questions about the wording
  • External event changes that make the market ambiguous
  • Unusual bet failure rates
  • Data source or oracle uncertainty
  • Comments requiring moderation

If the market should no longer accept predictions, close it. Closing stops new trades but does not choose an outcome.

Closing vs Pausing vs Voiding

ActionUse whenPlayer impact
Close marketTrading should stop, but the market can still resolve normallyExisting positions remain open until settlement
Pause seriesA recurring market series should stop creating new marketsExisting child markets are not automatically changed
Void marketThe market should be cancelled and refundedExisting positions are refunded through settlement

After Close

Closed markets should be resolved as soon as the outcome is known and the evidence is reliable. Long delays create support pressure because players can see positions but not final wallet movement.

For manual markets, prepare evidence before resolving:

  • Source link or operator evidence note
  • Timestamp of the result
  • Chosen outcome
  • Operator or team member who reviewed it

After Settlement

After Phoenix resolves or voids a market, verify:

  • The market status is final.
  • Payouts or refunds are visible in settlement reporting.
  • Support can find the market and transaction references for player questions.
  • Any public explanation is consistent with the market rule.

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