Market Lifecycle
How markets move from draft to trading to settlement
A prediction market is not just a page players can open. It is a trading contract with timing, outcomes, pricing, resolution rules, and settlement obligations.
Lifecycle States
| State | What players see | Operator action |
|---|---|---|
| Scheduled | Market may be visible before trading opens | Review content, timing, and placement |
| Open | Players can place predictions | Monitor activity and bet health |
| Closed | Trading has stopped | Prepare or wait for resolution |
| Settled | Outcome is final and settlement is in progress or complete | Review payouts and support questions |
| Voided | Market was cancelled or refunded | Reconcile refunds and communicate clearly |
Before Opening a Market
Check these items before a market goes live:
- The title is clear and cannot be interpreted in multiple ways.
- Outcomes are mutually exclusive and complete.
- The close time is before the event or data point being predicted.
- The resolution rule names the source of truth.
- The market is visible in the right experience, category, and topics.
- The currency and fee settings are correct.
- The image and description do not imply a different settlement rule.
While Trading Is Open
Watch for signals that require operator attention:
- Unexpectedly high volume
- Player support questions about the wording
- External event changes that make the market ambiguous
- Unusual bet failure rates
- Data source or oracle uncertainty
- Comments requiring moderation
If the market should no longer accept predictions, close it. Closing stops new trades but does not choose an outcome.
Closing vs Pausing vs Voiding
| Action | Use when | Player impact |
|---|---|---|
| Close market | Trading should stop, but the market can still resolve normally | Existing positions remain open until settlement |
| Pause series | A recurring market series should stop creating new markets | Existing child markets are not automatically changed |
| Void market | The market should be cancelled and refunded | Existing positions are refunded through settlement |
After Close
Closed markets should be resolved as soon as the outcome is known and the evidence is reliable. Long delays create support pressure because players can see positions but not final wallet movement.
For manual markets, prepare evidence before resolving:
- Source link or operator evidence note
- Timestamp of the result
- Chosen outcome
- Operator or team member who reviewed it
After Settlement
After Phoenix resolves or voids a market, verify:
- The market status is final.
- Payouts or refunds are visible in settlement reporting.
- Support can find the market and transaction references for player questions.
- Any public explanation is consistent with the market rule.